Tuesday, June 5, 2012

When Will Israel Attack?

There have been rumors of Israel attacking Iran for a long time, years in fact. It is apparent to all that Iran is working to make an atomic bomb, and Israel feels she needs to carry out a pre-emptive attack on Iran to prevent a hostile and fanatical Iran from having nukes with which it could destroy Israel. Not too many months ago, it was rumored that Israel was getting ready to attack Iran in the spring. Well, spring has come and gone (meteorological spring, that is, the months of March, April, and May), and there has been no attack. So now it looks like it may be the summer or fall.

Israel may have expressed a determination to stop Iran from developing nukes, but Israel has also shown great reluctance about actually attacking Iran. It makes me wonder, if stopping Iran is so critical to Israel's survival, as she claims, why hasn't she attacked yet? Iran has been working on its bomb project for years, and their fanaticism and hostility to Israel and the west is also well known. They must be getting close to making the bomb. I sometimes wonder if one of these days Iran will catch Israel and the west by surprise by announcing, or detonating, their first atomic bomb. Then it will be too late. Iran will be a nuclear power.

I have even thought of the Bible passage that says, "They have blown the trumpet and made everyone ready, But no one goes to battle..." (Ezekiel 7:14), and wondered if this could apply. But probably this verse is not about the current situation between Israel and Iran.

Perhaps Israel has very detailed, accurate, and reliable intelligence about how close Iran is to making the bomb and can afford to cut it fine.

I have not been following the details of that situation, but I see a general pattern.

Israel wants the government of Iran and its nuclear program taken out, but she would rather not attack Iran alone.

Iran is a threat to more than just Israel. Iran is a threat to Europe and the United States. It is a threat to the whole Persian Gulf region. It can threaten to close oil shipping in the Persian Gulf, disrupting vital oil supplies to the west, not just Europe and the United States, but Japan as well, and many other countries dependent on middle east oil. Iran is also a threat to moderate Muslim and Arab states in the region, such as Saudi Arabia.

Israel would like to have allies in a war against Iran. And I think Israel is hopeful that she can have allies.

But those allies may exact a price.

This can be a danger for Israel. In order to secure the cooperation and help of other powers in the region against Iran, she may make deals that will compromise her future security. If this is the case, she may win in the short term and she may win against Iran, but if the price she pays to other countries to gain their support weakens Israel and compromises her future security, she may sow the seeds of her own destruction in the long term.

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