Estimating the Shortness of the Time

We do not know when Christ will return (Matthew 24:36, Acts 1:6-8).  And while we know that the tribulation will begin about three and a half years before the return of Christ, we do not know when the great tribulation will begin.

Is it wrong to estimate?  Is it wrong to have an opinion, even to share our opinions with others in a spirit of friendly fellowship and "iron sharpens iron"?  I don't think so, provided we don't take our opinions too seriously.  Christ did not rebuke his disciples for asking the question.  And we are admonished to watch and be aware.

But be careful how you estimate, because it can affect your attitude towards doing God's work of preaching the gospel and the Ezekiel warning to Israel as a witness before the great tribulation begins, while Israel has time to repent and escape.

No one needs to estimate how much time we have left, but if you do, try to base your estimate, firstly on God's word, but also on common sense and the current situation both in the Church of God and the world.  Base your estimate on sound, logical thinking, not on emotion or wishful thinking.

The shortness of the time left is not measured by the level of our disgust, repulsion, or fear concerning world conditions.

We can all say that the time is short.  Compared with 6,000 years almost up, even twenty years is "short".

But there is short and there is short.  I think the time is short, maybe ten or fifteen years to the tribulation.  That is short.  But others may seem to think we only have about one, or two, or three years left.  That is a different kind of "short".

Some may say that the tribulation leading to the return of Christ is "at the door", using Bible language.  There is a time when Christ says we should be aware that His return is "at the door" (Matthew 24:33, Mark 13:29).

But if you read what precedes that, you see that a lot has to happen that has not happened yet.

Some may say, things can happen quickly in today's world.  But how much can happen and how quickly?

There are natural events and there are supernatural events.  And there is the combination of those two.  

There are different kinds of miracles and supernatural action.  There are quiet miracles and there are unusual, spectacular miracles.

God can perform tremendous, unusual, spectacular miracles to speed things up, or allow Satan to speed things up through tremendous supernatural action.

But so far, that has not happened, not in Mr. Armstrong's work of preaching the gospel, not in the events of World War II, not since the death of Mr. Armstrong even to today.

Miracles do occur of course.  By miracle I mean God's supernatural intervention and action.  But those are quiet miracles mixed with natural processes.  Each of us, if converted, is converted as a result of miracles from God, both to call us and to convert us with His Holy Spirit.  Our conversion is the result of God's miraculous action.  So is our protection from Satan.

God performed miracles to open Mr. Armstrong's mind to truth in the Bible.  God performed miracles to help the work grow in the time of Mr. Armstrong, at about 30% a year for a time.  God performed miracles, I think, in giving the English-speaking peoples the victory in World War II.  God intervened to bring about the result He wanted.

But these have been quiet miracles, interspersed with natural processes and events, not unusual, flashy miracles that are obviously the result of supernatural cause and action, like fire coming down from heaven in the sight of many people, or like the parting of the Red Sea or the fall of the walls of Jericho.

I read somewhere about something Mr. Armstrong experienced in doing the work that illustrates this.  I don't definitely remember the source or the details, but it was probably in his autobiography.

Mr. Armstrong saw an opportunity to add a radio station.  But when he talked to them, they turned him down.  Then he realized he had neglected to pray for God's help.  So he prayed and went back, and this time, he was successful.

This is an example of what I mean by a quiet miracle.  It was obvious that God helped move the minds of the people at the station to accept Mr. Armstrong's radio program.  But there was also the natural process involved of Mr. Armstrong contacting them, making his pitch, and getting approval.

This sort of thing happens all the time when we pray for God's help and He helps us.

It is those kinds of miracles God has used to do His work in our modern time.  We go through natural human processes and activities, and God helps our effort to succeed.

And because normal human activities are involved, things take time.

The work for a time grew at 30% a year.  But even at that rate it took decades for the work to grow, and even after decades Mr. Armstrong never reached all of Israel.

I have, in a previous post, shared my estimate that the tribulation will not begin for about ten to fifteen years.  I base that on all that has to happen: Europe must become strong, the United States must become weak, and the gospel and the Ezekiel warning have to go out to all Israel, maybe about 500 million people.  God will perform miracles and take supernatural action to guide events, and He will allow Satan to move events supernaturally, but normal human processes will be involved, and this will take time.  Miracles and supernatural actions will be of the quiet type I described, working with human events to move things towards their fulfillment.

At least this has been my assumption that I based my estimate on.

But it doesn't have to be that way, and I realize it.  My estimate could be completely wrong.  Maybe the great tribulation will come as soon as a year.  I realize that.

But for that to happen would require truly tremendous supernatural intervention, something of the kind we have not seen in modern times.

Could that happen?  Yes.  I think it is unlikely to happen soon.  I don't see any reason why it would happen in the next one to three years.  Most likely, God will work out his plan the same way, with quiet miracles to guide events, that He has been working in the last one hundred or more years.  For a while, anyway.  When we get very close to the end, things will get more lively.  The beast and false prophet will arise, signs and wonders will occur to deceive the world, the two witness will receive power to perform miracles, etc.  

But we may not be near that right now.

So why do many think the time we have left is so short it is only about one to three years?

Some might say, "It is obvious.  Things can't go on this way much longer".

But is that sound reasoning?  Or is it based on emotion?  Is this just an emotional argument, playing on the disgust and repulsion most of us feel regarding the sins of this world, but not based on Bible prophecy, not logical, not the product of a sound mind?

Is it wishful thinking?

I said before that our estimate about how much time is left should not be based on our level of disgust about conditions in the world.  The truth is, things can continue as they are for a long time, even getting worse and worse, in stages, over a long period of time.

Can things get worse, much worse, than they are today?

We can still do a work through radio, TV, magazines, the Internet, and public meetings.

The United States is still one of the freest countries on earth.

We are legally free to own and read a Bible.  That can change, but it hasn't happened yet.  We can meet for services, in rented halls or in our homes.  We can use the Internet to stream live services.  We can publish websites and instructional material.  Parents can home school their children.

Things can get a lot worse, and probably will, over time.  Maybe in stages.  We might go on like we are for a few years, then things will get worse in some way, then another few years can go by, and then things can get worse again, and so on.  We are not near the bottom at all.

What is it exactly that cannot continue much longer?

The debt crisis?  Is a collapse of the dollar imminent because of our debt?  

The debt crisis has been getting worse for years, but it may continue to get worse without triggering a collapse of the dollar for a while.  No one really knows.  We see the problem, like a ticking time bomb, but the world goes on.  Part of the reason is that, while the US dollar is in danger, other countries and other currencies also have debt problems.  It is a worldwide problem, and the dollar is still the trading and reserve currency of choice for most of the world.

And if a collapse of the dollar is imminent, why isn't the price of gold going through the roof?  It goes up, but slowly.  It fluctuates around $2,700 a troy ounce right now.  More than a decade ago it was around $1,200 to $1,600.  That is not far from the normal rate of inflation for everything.  If the world market, knowledgeable investors all over the world, thought the dollar was about to become worthless, I would expect gold to be well over $10,000 an ounce right now.  It is not.

Even if the dollar collapses, life will go on.  There will be adjustments.  Some people will lose their life savings.  Many will suffer.  But some form of currency will be used as a medium of exchange to permit people to work their farms and factories, to produce goods and services.

Our guns will still work.  So will our oil wells, our coal mines, our aircraft, our ships, our railroads, and our highways.  Food will grow.  Things will be made.  People will still marry and have kids.  There will still be schools and universities.  The Internet will still work.

What else "can't go on like this"?

The war in the Ukraine?  It will continue till they settle it.  Vladimir Putin?  He will continue in office until he is replaced.

Abortion?  Abortion potentially can actually decrease, now that Roe vs. Wade has been overturned.  But if not, then it will continue.  It has continued for decades, it could continue decades longer.

Homosexuality and Lesbianism?  The pressure to accept those things can continue and even get worse for a long time.

Transgenderism?  Same thing.  Pressures to accept it can continue a long time, then get worse, then continue a long time after that, then get worse again after that.

What can block or obstruct God's plan if it continues much longer?  

Nothing.

Everything bad we see can continue a long time, and none of it will stop the fulfillment of end time prophetic events: the great tribulation, the Day of the Lord, and the return of Jesus Christ.

So how do we know bad things won't continue a long time?

Is it just our emotions?  We don't want it to continue, so it won't?  That is not the reasoning of a sound mind.

Here is my point.  Don't get too attached to the idea that we only have a very short time.  Yes, God can work it that way by very great miracles, but He may not, so don't assume He will.

Allow for the possibility that we may have more than a decade left.  Don't rule that out because of emotion.

Why do I focus on this?  We don't know, so if we don't know, why say anything?  Let each be content in his own opinion, and events will show themselves.

The problem is that many ministers and speakers seem to be convinced that we only have a very few years, and they are encouraging others to think the same.  They are starting to push the idea of a very short time.

What effect does that have on our thinking and behavior?

At first, it may seem good.  If time is short, only a year or two, then we may all feel extra motivation to overcome sin and draw close to God.  So we will all be motivated to get ourselves ready so we can go to the place of safety.

But the effect may be just the opposite.  Thinking that time is very short can keep some from the place of safety.  

I will explain.

I have said over and over that those who go to a place of safety will be the same ones who have an open door for the preaching of the gospel and the Ezekiel warning to Israel.

How does thinking we only have a few years affect our attitude towards the gospel?  How does it affect our willingness to make the sacrifices and pay the price to obtain an open door and go through it in order to finish God's work?

What will happen regarding the work of warning the world?

Three things are possible.

One, it will not happen.  We won't do it, and all the nations of Israel will go into the great tribulation without a warning.  I think this is unacceptable.

Two, we will do it by our regular methods, as helped by God, as Mr. Armstrong did, with updated procedures according to changing times.  But it will be human effort aided by God helping and doing quiet miracles behind the scenes as He did for Mr. Armstrong.  Maybe we will start small and grow at 30% a year, or 50% a year, but it will take time - it will take many years - to reach everyone.

Or, three, if God wants to wrap things up quickly, He can perform big, outstanding miracles to speed up the work.  Some minister in the Church of God may perform public miracles that grab attention, and the work can jump ahead in a big way, allowing us to reach hundreds of millions of people in a short time, maybe in a year.  God's message would be on all the news.

So which?

I think we can eliminate the first possibility, at least I hope so.  Shame on us if we don't do God's work, but I don't think God will allow us to fail to do it and allow Israel to be unwarned.

Both numbers two and three are possible.  Number two, doing a long work, is how God has worked so far in modern times, and it is how He worked with Mr. Armstrong.  It is the way that most involves the work of the Church of God.

But possibility three, while it gets the message out, least involves the work of the Church.  It becomes a matter of waiting for God to take miraculous action.  Until then, we sit on our hands.

Think about it.  If the only way the work will get done in a short span of time is by big miracles from God, then what do we need to do in the meantime while we wait for God to do such miracles?

If we only have a year or two before the great tribulation begins, then what is the point of starting websites, publishing a magazine, going on radio or television, paying for Google pay-per-click advertising for websites, or having public lectures?  If we only grow at 30% or 50% a year in a way similar to how Mr. Armstrong's work grew, what is the point if we flee to a place of safety in the next year or two?

Making the sacrifices to do a work only makes sense if we have enough years left for it to pay off.  One to two years won't cut it as far as what we can do now.  God can do big miracles, but if so, what do we do that is worthwhile until He does?

This is why it is dangerous for the work of God to get married to the idea that we only have one or two years, or even three, four, or five years.

Someone said, we should work as if it all depends on us, but pray as if it all depends on God.  But how motivated will we be to work as if it all depends on us if we are sure in our minds we won't have the time to be effective?

That is why I think that being sure we only have a very few years left can keep us out of the place of safety.  Thinking that time is short can diminish our zeal for doing our part in God's work.  We will think we won't have time to do anything very effective in reaching 500 million people who need a warning, so why try.  Why start what we cannot finish?  Better to focus inward, try to get ourselves ready, and wait for either God to perform big miracles to get the job done in a year or two, or let the job not get done at all.

If we think that way, we are unlikely to make the sacrifices to get the job done.  We will not seek a fellowship that is willing to change doctrine, learn new things from Christ and the Bible, and teach the membership to believe the Bible more than the Church, all of which are required to effectively preach the truth to the public without being hypocrites.  We will not make the financial sacrifices to support the work.  We will not make the sacrifices of time and effort.

As a result, we will neither be given nor go through a wide open door for finishing the work of warning Israel and the world.

And unless we repent, Christ will never give us the opportunity to go to a place of safety.

Yes, it's possible we may have only a year or two.  Actually, I am not sure if it is possible because there are details of prophecy concerning events that must occur, and I am not familiar with them - they may require three or more years.  But let's just say, for the sake of discussion, that it may be possible we only have a year or two.

But it is also possible we have ten or fifteen or so years left.

All I say is, don't be too sure it is only a few short years.  Don't marry that idea.  Don't commit to thinking that way.  And don't let that idea affect your commitment to doing your part to support the work of preaching the gospel and the Ezekiel warning to all Israel and to much of the world before the great tribulation begins.

Don't rule out the possibility of doing a long work, lasting many years, with steady growth year by year, with God's help, as Mr. Armstrong did.
 
That work should start now.